Predicted changes in variation of annual rainfall, length of growing period, and temperature by 2050

This series of maps shows predicted changes in different climate phenomena by 2050 using scenarios developed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change). The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. Map C shows the rangeland areas in which the average annual temperature flips from below 8°C in the 2000s to above 8°C by the 2050s. It is possible that between now and the middle of the century the growing period in the rangelands where average temperature flip to above 8°C could expand and become increasingly suitable for some kinds of rangeland vegetation. Map D shows the rangeland areas with an average maximum temperature (both annual and during the primary growing season) that flips from below 35°C to greater than 35°C by 2050. This will be a critical threshold for rangeland vegetation and heat tolerance in some species.

Key figures

1. According to climate change simulations rangelands can expect changes in the coefficient of variation of annual rainfall i.e. its variability between 2000 and 2050. 12% or approximately 9,000,000 km2 of rangelands can expect to see greater than 35% change, 10% or approximately 8,000,000 km2 can expect 30-35% change, 20% or approximately 16, 000,000 km2 can expect 25-30%, 18% or 14,000,000 km2 can expect 20-25% change, 9% or approximately 7,000,000 km2  can expect 0-20% and 32% or approximately 25,000,000 km2 can expect no change at all. 

2. 12% of rangelands (approximately 10,000,000 km2) are predicted to have more than a 20% loss of length of growing period between 2000 and 2050. 88% of rangelands (66,000,000 km2) of rangelands are predicted to have less than a 20% loss of length of growing period between 2000 and 2050.

3. In around 4% of rangelands (approximately 3,000,000 km2) the average annual temperature will flip from below 8°C in the 2000s to above 8°C by the 2050s. The remaining 96% will not flip and/or will do so to a lower temperature. 

4. In around 16% of rangelands (approximately 12,000,000 km2) the average maximum temperature is predicted to flip from below 35°C to greater than 35°C by 2050. This flip will be a critical threshold for rangeland vegetation and heat tolerance in some species. In the remaining 84% of rangelands the temperature will not flip and/or will do so to a lower temperature. 

Coefficient of variation of annual rainfall by 2050 in rangelands

Coefficient of variation of annual rainfall by 2050 in rangelands
Legend

Statistics

No

Rainfall CV status

Area km2

1

0 %

24,774,702

2

0-20 %

6,981,734

3

20 - 25 %

13,761,107

4

25 - 30 %

15,505,479

5

30 - 35 %

7,984,837

6

> 35 %

9,408,701

 

Total

78,416,559

 

Sources

Source 1: Terrestial ecoregions of the World. World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Downloaded in 2021: https://globil-panda.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/terrestrial-ecoregion…. Original source: Olson, D. M., Dinerstein, E., Wikramanayake, E. D., Burgess, N. D., Powell, G. V. N., Underwood, E. C., D'Amico, J. A., Itoua, I., Strand, H. E., Morrison, J. C., Loucks, C. J., Allnutt, T. F., Ricketts, T. H., Kura, Y., Lamoreux, J. F., Wettengel, W. W., Hedao, P., Kassem, K. R. 2001. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. Bioscience 51(11):933-938.

Source 2:Projections to 2050 using a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and data from an ensemble of 17 climate models taken from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme.

Reference paper: Herrero M., Addison J., Bedelian C., Carabine E., Havlík P., Henderson B., van de Steeg J. & Thornton P.K. – Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz., 2016, 35 (2), 417–433.

20% loss of length of growing period (LGP) between 2000 and 2050 found in rangelands

20 percent loss of length of growing period (LGP) between 2000 and 2050 found in rangelands
Legend

Statistics

No

LGP status

Area km2

1

< 20 % loss

68,228,113

2

> 20 % loss

9,644,714

 

Total

77,872,827

 

Sources

Source 1: Terrestial ecoregions of the World. World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Downloaded in 2021: https://globil-panda.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/terrestrial-ecoregion…. Original source: Olson, D. M., Dinerstein, E., Wikramanayake, E. D., Burgess, N. D., Powell, G. V. N., Underwood, E. C., D'Amico, J. A., Itoua, I., Strand, H. E., Morrison, J. C., Loucks, C. J., Allnutt, T. F., Ricketts, T. H., Kura, Y., Lamoreux, J. F., Wettengel, W. W., Hedao, P., Kassem, K. R. 2001. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. Bioscience 51(11):933-938.

Source 2:Projections to 2050 using a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and data from an ensemble of 17 climate models taken from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme.

Reference paper: Herrero M., Addison J., Bedelian C., Carabine E., Havlík P., Henderson B., van de Steeg J. & Thornton P.K. – Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz., 2016, 35 (2), 417–433.

Average Annual Temperature variation below 8°C in the 2000s to above 8°C by the 2050s found in rangelands

Average Annual Temperature variation below 8°C in the 2000s to above 8°C by the 2050s found in rangelands
Legend

Statistics

No

AAT status

Area km2

1

< 8ºC

74,791,530

2

> 8ºC

3,081,541

 

Total

77,873,071

 

Sources

Source 1: Terrestial ecoregions of the World. World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Downloaded in 2021: https://globil-panda.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/terrestrial-ecoregion…. Original source: Olson, D. M., Dinerstein, E., Wikramanayake, E. D., Burgess, N. D., Powell, G. V. N., Underwood, E. C., D'Amico, J. A., Itoua, I., Strand, H. E., Morrison, J. C., Loucks, C. J., Allnutt, T. F., Ricketts, T. H., Kura, Y., Lamoreux, J. F., Wettengel, W. W., Hedao, P., Kassem, K. R. 2001. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. Bioscience 51(11):933-938.

Source 2:Projections to 2050 using a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and data from an ensemble of 17 climate models taken from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme.

Reference paper: Herrero M., Addison J., Bedelian C., Carabine E., Havlík P., Henderson B., van de Steeg J. & Thornton P.K. – Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz., 2016, 35 (2), 417–433.

Average maximum temperature flipping from below 35ºC to greater than 35 ºC by 2050 found in rangelands

Average maximum temperature flipping from below 35ºC to greater than 35 ºC by 2050 found in rangelands
Legend

Statistics

No

AMT status

Area km2

1

< 35ºC

66,201,053

2

> 35ºC

12,298,038

 

Total

78,499,090

 

sources

Source 1: Terrestial ecoregions of the World. World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Downloaded in 2021: https://globil-panda.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/terrestrial-ecoregion…. Original source: Olson, D. M., Dinerstein, E., Wikramanayake, E. D., Burgess, N. D., Powell, G. V. N., Underwood, E. C., D'Amico, J. A., Itoua, I., Strand, H. E., Morrison, J. C., Loucks, C. J., Allnutt, T. F., Ricketts, T. H., Kura, Y., Lamoreux, J. F., Wettengel, W. W., Hedao, P., Kassem, K. R. 2001. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. Bioscience 51(11):933-938.

Source 2:Projections to 2050 using a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and data from an ensemble of 17 climate models taken from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme.

Reference paper: Herrero M., Addison J., Bedelian C., Carabine E., Havlík P., Henderson B., van de Steeg J. & Thornton P.K. – Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz., 2016, 35 (2), 417–433.